KEWR / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

63%

60%

57%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.9¢Risks 76.90u

HRESNO 23.1¢Risks 23.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.10u · HRES −23.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	69.4%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	46.0%	67.0%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	13.7%	49.3%	19.4%	—	23.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	29.7%	37.8%	30.4%	—	20.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	53.0%	48.5%	42.4%	—	28.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	38.2%	43.6%	9.0%	—	24.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	2.9%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	42.5%	63.1%	24.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	42.4%	54.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	49.1%	77.9%	49.1%	56.1%	40.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	76.5%	—	—	48.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	66.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	66.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	63%	61.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	60.5°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	60.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗