KEWR / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

63%

60%

57%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.9¢Risks 76.90u

HRESNO 23.1¢Risks 23.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.10u · HRES −23.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:26+00:00	85.4%	41.2%	66.6%	18.6%	54.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	85.4%	36.0%	66.6%	18.6%	54.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	85.4%	36.0%	66.6%	18.6%	54.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	85.4%	36.0%	74.7%	18.6%	54.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	85.4%	36.0%	74.7%	18.6%	54.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	85.4%	36.0%	74.7%	18.6%	54.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	85.0%	36.0%	74.7%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	85.0%	36.0%	74.7%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	85.0%	36.0%	74.7%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	85.0%	36.0%	74.7%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	85.0%	36.0%	74.7%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	85.0%	36.0%	85.8%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	85.0%	36.0%	85.8%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	85.0%	36.0%	85.8%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	82.7%	36.0%	85.8%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	82.7%	36.0%	85.8%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	82.7%	36.0%	85.8%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	82.7%	36.0%	85.8%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00	82.7%	36.0%	85.8%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:00	82.7%	36.0%	78.0%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	82.7%	36.0%	78.0%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	82.7%	36.0%	78.0%	34.7%	71.7%
2026-10-19T07:32:31+00:00	87.5%	36.0%	78.0%	23.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	87.5%	36.0%	78.0%	23.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	87.5%	36.0%	78.0%	23.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	87.5%	36.0%	78.0%	23.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T10:34:49+00:00	87.5%	36.0%	78.0%	23.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	87.5%	39.3%	83.5%	23.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00	87.5%	39.3%	83.5%	23.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:47+00:00	87.5%	39.3%	83.5%	23.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	90.9%	39.3%	83.5%	23.4%	57.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	90.9%	39.3%	83.5%	23.4%	57.8%
2026-10-20T04:03:29+00:00	91.6%	40.4%	91.7%	52.1%	61.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00	91.6%	40.4%	91.7%	52.1%	61.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	91.6%	40.4%	93.7%	52.1%	61.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	91.6%	40.4%	93.7%	52.1%	61.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00	91.6%	40.4%	93.7%	52.1%	61.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	93.4%	40.4%	93.7%	52.1%	62.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	93.4%	40.4%	93.7%	52.1%	62.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00	93.4%	40.4%	93.7%	52.1%	62.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	93.4%	40.4%	93.7%	52.1%	62.9%
2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00	93.4%	60.4%	96.6%	57.1%	62.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00	93.4%	60.4%	96.6%	57.1%	62.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	93.4%	60.4%	96.6%	57.1%	62.9%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	93.4%	60.4%	96.6%	57.1%	62.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	93.4%	60.5%	96.6%	57.2%	62.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00	93.4%	60.5%	96.6%	57.2%	62.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	66.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	66.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	63%	61.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	60.5°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	60.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗