KEWR / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

82%

49%

38%

20%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.6¢Risks 51.60u

EPSNO 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.40u · EPS −48.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	57.1%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	33.0%	54.0%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	7.4%	35.6%	11.2%	—	14.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	18.4%	24.9%	18.9%	—	11.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	38.0%	33.7%	28.3%	—	17.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	24.2%	28.8%	4.1%	—	14.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	1.0%	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	27.2%	46.7%	13.4%	—	13.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	26.7%	37.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.7%	32.2%	62.9%	32.2%	38.8%	24.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	60.7%	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	65.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	66.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	49%	61.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	59.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	58.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗