KEWR / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

82%

49%

38%

20%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.6¢Risks 51.60u

EPSNO 48.4¢Risks 48.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.40u · EPS −48.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00	17.8%	67.2%	79.6%	28.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	17.8%	67.2%	79.6%	28.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	17.8%	67.2%	79.6%	28.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	17.8%	67.2%	79.6%	28.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	17.8%	67.2%	79.6%	28.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	17.8%	52.8%	77.8%	28.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	17.8%	52.8%	77.8%	28.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	17.8%	52.8%	77.8%	28.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	17.8%	52.8%	77.8%	28.3%	58.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	50.0%	52.8%	77.7%	28.3%	58.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	50.0%	54.7%	77.7%	28.3%	58.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	50.0%	54.7%	77.7%	28.3%	58.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	50.0%	54.7%	58.5%	28.3%	58.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	50.0%	54.7%	58.5%	28.3%	58.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:53+00:00	50.0%	54.7%	58.5%	28.3%	58.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	50.0%	54.7%	58.5%	28.3%	58.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	24.9%	54.7%	58.5%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	24.9%	54.7%	58.5%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	24.9%	54.7%	58.5%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:47+00:00	24.9%	54.7%	58.5%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	24.9%	54.7%	41.5%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	24.9%	54.7%	41.5%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:20+00:00	24.9%	54.7%	41.5%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	24.9%	54.7%	41.5%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	68.1%	54.7%	41.5%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	68.1%	54.7%	41.5%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	68.1%	54.7%	41.5%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	68.1%	54.7%	41.5%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	68.1%	54.7%	57.8%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	68.1%	54.7%	57.8%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	68.1%	54.7%	57.8%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	68.1%	54.7%	57.8%	33.8%	36.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:46+00:00	55.1%	54.7%	57.8%	11.6%	43.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	55.1%	54.7%	57.8%	11.6%	43.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	55.1%	54.7%	57.8%	11.6%	43.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	55.1%	54.7%	57.8%	11.6%	43.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	55.1%	23.4%	50.0%	11.6%	43.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	55.1%	23.4%	50.0%	11.6%	43.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	55.1%	23.4%	50.0%	11.6%	43.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	55.1%	23.4%	50.0%	11.6%	43.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	75.3%	23.6%	50.0%	11.6%	43.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:11+00:00	82.4%	19.8%	68.7%	14.2%	44.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	82.4%	19.8%	68.7%	14.2%	44.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00	82.4%	19.8%	68.7%	14.2%	44.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	82.4%	19.8%	80.9%	14.2%	44.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	82.4%	19.8%	80.9%	14.2%	44.8%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	82.4%	19.8%	80.9%	14.2%	44.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:24+00:00	82.9%	19.8%	80.9%	38.4%	48.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	82.9%	19.8%	80.9%	38.4%	48.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	82.9%	19.8%	80.9%	38.4%	48.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	82.9%	19.8%	80.9%	38.4%	48.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	82.9%	19.8%	80.9%	38.4%	48.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	82.9%	19.8%	81.6%	38.4%	48.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:39+00:00	82.9%	19.8%	81.6%	38.4%	48.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:31+00:00	82.9%	19.8%	81.6%	38.4%	48.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	83.4%	19.8%	81.6%	38.4%	48.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	83.4%	19.8%	81.6%	38.4%	48.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	83.4%	19.8%	81.6%	38.4%	48.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	66.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	65.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	49%	61.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	59.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	60.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	58.7°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗