KEWR / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

79%

66%

39%

36%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.4¢Risks 60.40u

EPSNO 39.6¢Risks 39.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.60u · EPS −39.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.7%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	8.3%	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	29.5%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	1.0%	33.6%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	54.9%	31.7%	5.2%	—	26.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	33.7%	26.6%	17.0%	—	23.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	50.8%	38.0%	23.9%	—	21.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	48.4%	50.8%	30.1%	39.0%	27.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	45.9%	—	—	33.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	69.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	69.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	68.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	63.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	64.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗