KEWR / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Newark, NJHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

79%

66%

39%

36%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.4¢Risks 60.40u

EPSNO 39.6¢Risks 39.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.60u · EPS −39.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:11+00:00	71.1%	18.0%	68.1%	37.5%	57.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	71.1%	18.0%	68.1%	37.5%	57.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:11+00:00	71.1%	18.0%	68.1%	37.5%	57.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	71.1%	18.0%	80.4%	37.5%	57.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	71.1%	18.0%	80.4%	37.5%	57.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	71.1%	18.0%	80.4%	37.5%	57.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:24+00:00	71.7%	18.0%	80.4%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	71.7%	18.0%	80.4%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	71.7%	18.0%	80.4%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	71.7%	18.0%	80.4%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	71.7%	18.0%	80.4%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	71.7%	18.0%	79.8%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-20T00:16:39+00:00	71.7%	18.0%	79.8%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:31+00:00	71.7%	18.0%	79.8%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	72.9%	18.0%	79.8%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	72.9%	18.0%	79.8%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	72.9%	18.0%	79.8%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-20T04:03:29+00:00	72.9%	18.0%	79.8%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00	72.9%	18.0%	79.8%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	72.9%	18.0%	79.2%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	72.9%	18.0%	79.2%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00	72.9%	18.0%	79.2%	36.4%	69.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	79.1%	18.0%	79.2%	36.4%	65.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	79.1%	18.0%	79.2%	36.4%	65.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00	79.1%	18.0%	79.2%	36.4%	65.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	79.1%	18.0%	79.2%	36.4%	65.9%
2026-10-20T10:52:55+00:00	79.1%	35.5%	85.2%	39.1%	65.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00	79.1%	35.5%	85.2%	39.1%	65.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	79.1%	35.5%	85.2%	39.1%	65.9%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	79.1%	35.5%	85.2%	39.1%	65.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	79.1%	35.5%	85.3%	39.1%	65.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00	79.1%	35.5%	85.3%	39.1%	65.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	69.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	69.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	66%	68.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	63.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	64.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KEWR

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KEWR-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Newark high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗