KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

76%

51%

43%

14%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.8¢Risks 56.80u

AIFSNO 43.2¢Risks 43.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.20u · AIFS −43.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	57.0%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	20.2%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	48.7%	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	65.2%	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	3.5%	5.6%	38.9%	—	59.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	4.2%	93.4%	—	47.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	44.7%	11.0%	68.4%	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	31.6%	57.9%	24.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	42.5%	61.5%	17.3%	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	4.1%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	7.7%	60.4%	4.1%	—	16.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	7.8%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	3.2%	44.5%	2.3%	—	6.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.8%	21.7%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.7%	16.5%	2.5%	—	2.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.4%	12.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.9%	7.4%	1.3%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.3%	8.8%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	6.2%	2.9%	0.0%	1.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	7.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	5.4%	1.5%	—	1.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	4.0%	1.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	4.0%	1.2%	1.2%	1.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	2.2%	1.5%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	2.6%	1.0%	1.4%	0.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	2.1%	0.5%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	2.1%	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	1.8%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.5%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.0%	0.2%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	89.2°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.9920
IFS HRES	76%	81.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.5791
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2905
ICON	51%	77.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2642
National Blend	48%	77.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2275
WeatherNext 2	43%	76.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1866
AIFS Single	14%	72.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0196

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗