KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

76%

51%

43%

14%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 56.8¢Risks 56.80u

AIFSNO 43.2¢Risks 43.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.20u · AIFS −43.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:46+00:00	46.2%	97.2%	31.4%	75.8%	65.5%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	46.2%	97.2%	31.4%	75.8%	65.5%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	46.2%	97.2%	33.8%	75.8%	65.5%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	46.2%	97.2%	33.8%	75.8%	65.5%
2026-10-12T07:02:35+00:00	46.2%	97.2%	33.8%	75.8%	65.5%
2026-10-12T07:48:45+00:00	44.3%	97.2%	33.8%	76.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	44.3%	97.2%	33.8%	76.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	44.3%	97.2%	33.8%	76.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	44.3%	97.2%	33.8%	76.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	44.3%	97.2%	33.8%	76.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00	44.3%	97.2%	43.2%	76.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	44.3%	99.6%	43.2%	76.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	44.3%	99.6%	43.2%	76.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	14.0%	99.6%	43.2%	76.1%	51.4%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	14.0%	99.6%	43.2%	76.1%	51.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	89.2°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.9920
IFS HRES	76%	81.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.5791
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2905
ICON	51%	77.7°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2642
National Blend	48%	77.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2275
WeatherNext 2	43%	76.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1866
AIFS Single	14%	72.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0196

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗