KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

<1%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

WN2NO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.85u · WN2 −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	45.3%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	12.5%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	36.0%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	52.0%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.5%	2.6%	26.3%	—	45.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.8%	87.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	30.3%	5.4%	53.8%	—	20.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	18.9%	42.1%	13.6%	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	27.2%	45.0%	8.7%	—	20.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.5%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.1%	43.0%	1.5%	—	8.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.1%	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.0%	27.4%	0.7%	—	2.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	10.4%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	7.2%	0.7%	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	4.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	2.5%	0.3%	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	3.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.9%	0.7%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	2.2%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.4%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	86.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.8724
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	53%	80.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2809
IFS HRES	5%	71.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0026
ICON	4%	71.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0017
AIFS Single	2%	69.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0002
WeatherNext 2	<1%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗