KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

<1%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

WN2NO 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.85u · WN2 −52.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:11:58+00:00	7.3%	94.0%	7.3%	89.4%	21.4%
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	7.3%	94.0%	7.3%	89.4%	21.4%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	7.3%	94.0%	7.3%	89.4%	21.4%
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	7.3%	94.0%	6.2%	89.4%	21.4%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	7.3%	94.0%	6.2%	89.4%	21.4%
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	7.3%	94.0%	6.2%	89.4%	21.4%
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	16.8%	94.0%	6.2%	65.4%	54.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	16.8%	94.0%	6.2%	65.4%	54.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:54+00:00	16.8%	94.0%	6.2%	65.4%	54.6%
2026-10-11T21:59:00+00:00	16.8%	94.0%	6.2%	65.4%	54.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	16.8%	94.0%	6.2%	65.4%	54.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	16.8%	94.0%	17.8%	65.4%	54.5%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	16.8%	94.0%	17.8%	65.4%	54.5%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	16.8%	94.0%	17.8%	65.4%	54.5%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	31.9%	94.0%	17.8%	65.4%	54.5%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	31.9%	94.0%	17.8%	65.4%	54.5%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	31.9%	94.0%	17.8%	65.4%	54.5%
2026-10-13T04:16:13+00:00	4.5%	98.5%	8.9%	22.3%	48.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	4.5%	98.5%	8.9%	22.3%	48.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	4.5%	98.5%	7.1%	22.3%	48.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	4.5%	98.5%	7.1%	22.3%	48.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	4.5%	98.5%	7.1%	22.3%	48.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:56+00:00	3.3%	98.5%	7.1%	9.3%	7.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	3.3%	98.5%	7.1%	9.3%	7.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	3.3%	98.5%	7.1%	9.3%	7.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	3.3%	98.5%	7.1%	9.3%	7.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	3.3%	98.5%	7.1%	9.3%	7.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	3.3%	93.0%	1.3%	9.3%	7.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	3.3%	93.0%	1.3%	9.3%	7.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	3.3%	93.0%	1.3%	9.3%	7.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	2.3%	93.0%	1.3%	9.3%	7.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	2.3%	93.0%	1.3%	9.3%	7.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:48+00:00	2.3%	93.4%	1.3%	9.3%	7.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	2.3%	93.4%	1.3%	9.3%	7.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	2.3%	93.4%	0.8%	9.3%	7.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	2.3%	93.4%	0.8%	9.3%	7.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	2.3%	93.4%	0.8%	9.3%	7.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	2.3%	93.4%	0.8%	9.3%	7.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	2.8%	93.4%	0.8%	9.3%	4.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	2.8%	93.4%	0.8%	9.3%	4.1%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	2.8%	93.4%	0.8%	9.3%	4.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	2.8%	93.4%	0.8%	9.3%	4.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	2.8%	93.4%	0.9%	5.1%	4.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	2.8%	93.4%	0.9%	5.1%	4.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	2.8%	93.4%	0.9%	5.1%	4.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	1.5%	93.4%	0.9%	5.1%	4.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	1.5%	93.4%	0.9%	5.1%	4.1%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	1.5%	93.4%	0.9%	5.1%	4.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	86.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.8724
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2970
National Blend	53%	80.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2809
IFS HRES	5%	71.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0026
ICON	4%	71.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0017
AIFS Single	2%	69.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0002
WeatherNext 2	<1%	70.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 11 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗