KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 83°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

82%

14%

Consensus

27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.9¢Risks 46.85u

AIFSNO 53.1¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.15u · AIFS −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.6%	—	28.8%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	5.2%	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	19.8%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	32.4%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	0.7%	12.2%	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.4%	72.2%	—	16.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	13.8%	1.5%	31.6%	—	8.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	6.9%	21.2%	4.5%	—	15.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	10.8%	22.5%	2.3%	—	7.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	20.2%	0.2%	—	1.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	9.8%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	2.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.4%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	89.8°F	5.2°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.8464
IFS HRES	82%	88.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.6659
National Blend	52%	83.0°F	9.3°F	2026-10-10 06:00	0.2725
ICON	14%	71.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0185
WeatherNext 2	2%	72.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0004
AIFS Single	2%	70.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 83°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗