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KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 83°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
92%
HRES
82%
ICON
14%
WN2
2%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
27%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 46.9¢Risks 46.85u
VS
AIFSNO 53.1¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.15u · AIFS −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T22:27:48+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-10-10T22:27:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.0% · 2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.5% · 2026-10-10T22:27:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-10-10T22:27:48+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00IFS HRES: 81.6% · 2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-10T22:27:48+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:0010-10 22:2710-11 01:2910-11 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T22:27:48+00:002.1%92.0%5.5%81.6%13.6%
2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:002.1%92.0%2.1%81.6%13.6%
2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:002.1%92.0%2.1%81.6%13.6%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:002.1%92.0%2.1%81.6%13.6%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:001.7%92.0%2.1%81.6%13.6%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:001.7%92.0%2.1%81.6%13.6%
2026-10-11T02:59:21+00:001.7%92.0%2.1%81.6%13.6%
2026-10-11T03:45:18+00:001.7%92.0%2.1%81.6%13.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble92%89.8°F5.2°F2026-10-10 00:000.8464
IFS HRES82%88.2°F6.3°F2026-10-10 12:000.6659
National Blend52%83.0°F9.3°F2026-10-10 06:000.2725
ICON14%71.7°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.0185
WeatherNext 22%72.5°F4.9°F2026-10-10 12:000.0004
AIFS Single2%70.7°F5.6°F2026-10-10 18:000.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 83°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗