KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

74%

12%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 40.1¢Risks 40.05u

WN2NO 59.9¢Risks 59.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.95u · WN2 −59.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	24.0%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	3.8%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	15.6%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	26.5%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%	9.0%	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	65.7%	—	12.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	10.0%	0.9%	25.1%	—	5.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	4.7%	15.9%	2.9%	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.4%	16.8%	1.4%	—	4.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	14.6%	0.1%	—	1.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	6.3%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	88.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.6257
IFS HRES	74%	87.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.5461
NWS forecast	53%	84.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2852
National Blend	36%	80.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.1318
ICON	12%	71.7°F	9.8°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0132
AIFS Single	1%	71.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0002
WeatherNext 2	1%	72.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 84°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗