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KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
79%
HRES
74%
ICON
12%
AIFS
1%
WN2
1%
Consensus
19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 40.1¢Risks 40.05u
VS
WN2NO 59.9¢Risks 59.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.95u · WN2 −59.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T04:30:51+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:25+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T10:34:07+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T11:20:07+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T04:30:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T07:32:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T10:34:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.5% · 2026-10-11T11:20:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.5% · 2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.5% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.5% · 2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.1% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-10-11T04:30:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-11T07:32:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-11T10:34:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T11:20:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-11T04:30:51+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T07:32:25+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T10:34:07+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T11:20:07+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T04:30:51+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T07:32:25+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T10:34:07+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T11:20:07+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00ICON: 11.5% · 2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:0010-11 04:3010-11 09:4810-11 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T04:30:51+00:001.1%88.7%1.3%77.1%11.5%
2026-10-11T05:16:06+00:001.1%88.7%5.0%77.1%11.5%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:001.1%88.7%5.0%77.1%11.5%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:001.1%88.7%5.0%77.1%11.5%
2026-10-11T07:32:25+00:000.6%88.7%5.0%73.9%11.5%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:000.6%88.7%5.0%73.9%11.5%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:000.6%88.7%5.0%73.9%11.5%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:000.6%88.7%5.0%73.9%11.5%
2026-10-11T10:34:07+00:000.6%88.7%5.0%73.9%11.5%
2026-10-11T11:20:07+00:000.6%79.5%1.0%73.9%11.5%
2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:000.6%79.5%1.0%73.9%11.5%
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:000.6%79.5%1.0%73.9%11.5%
2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:001.4%79.5%1.0%73.9%11.5%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:001.3%79.1%1.0%73.9%11.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble79%88.2°F5.8°F2026-10-11 00:000.6257
IFS HRES74%87.7°F6.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.5461
NWS forecast53%84.0°F5.8°F2026-10-11 02:000.2852
National Blend36%80.0°F10.0°F2026-10-11 06:000.1318
ICON12%71.7°F9.8°F2026-10-10 12:000.0132
AIFS Single1%71.8°F5.3°F2026-10-11 06:000.0002
WeatherNext 21%72.9°F4.5°F2026-10-11 00:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 11 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 84°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗