KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≤ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

66%

63%

57%

<1%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 37.6¢Risks 37.60u

EPSNO 62.4¢Risks 62.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.40u · EPS −62.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	67.1%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	14.5%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	45.6%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	17.2%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	8.0%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	77.6%	70.2%	21.9%	—	9.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	73.4%	0.5%	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	15.5%	53.0%	5.2%	—	23.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	23.6%	8.1%	30.9%	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	14.3%	6.1%	37.7%	—	19.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	67.4%	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	54.4%	5.7%	66.2%	—	36.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	87.9%	52.7%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	86.1%	67.8%	10.6%	72.6%	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	59.4%	26.1%	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	74.5%	31.3%	68.7%	—	72.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	62.8%	36.3%	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	69.7%	45.9%	74.9%	—	76.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	65.5%	40.6%	—	—	81.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	73.6%	45.6%	59.7%	100.0%	71.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	93.7%	67.5%	40.0%	99.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	72.0%	44.2%	65.9%	—	72.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	73.7%	47.6%	64.1%	—	100.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	70.2%	45.0%	64.6%	64.6%	66.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	67.5%	52.6%	59.0%	—	72.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	64.4%	47.3%	61.9%	56.7%	72.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	66.2%	47.2%	68.8%	—	75.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	64.2%	44.2%	66.9%	62.8%	79.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	66.2%	42.5%	77.6%	—	81.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	78.6%	42.1%	81.9%	68.3%	89.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	73.3%	43.4%	66.1%	—	81.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	75%	69.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5655
WeatherNext 2	66%	70.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4356
AIFS Single	63%	70.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.3956
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
IFS HRES	57%	70.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3306
National Blend	23%	73.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0520
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.4°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Houston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗