KIAH / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≤ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

66%

63%

57%

<1%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 37.6¢Risks 37.60u

EPSNO 62.4¢Risks 62.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.40u · EPS −62.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:56+00:00	54.3%	0.0%	31.2%	39.0%	40.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	54.3%	0.0%	31.2%	39.0%	40.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	54.3%	0.0%	31.2%	39.0%	40.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	54.3%	0.0%	31.2%	39.0%	40.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	54.3%	0.0%	31.2%	39.0%	40.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	54.3%	0.1%	53.2%	39.0%	40.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	54.3%	0.1%	53.2%	39.0%	40.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	54.3%	0.1%	53.2%	39.0%	40.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	60.3%	0.1%	53.2%	39.0%	41.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	60.3%	0.1%	53.2%	39.0%	41.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:48+00:00	60.3%	0.1%	53.2%	39.0%	41.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	60.3%	0.1%	53.2%	39.0%	41.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	60.3%	0.1%	60.6%	39.0%	41.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	60.3%	0.1%	60.6%	39.0%	41.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	60.3%	0.1%	60.6%	39.0%	41.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	60.3%	0.1%	60.6%	39.0%	41.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	56.9%	0.1%	60.6%	39.0%	53.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	56.9%	0.1%	60.6%	39.0%	53.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	56.9%	0.1%	60.6%	39.0%	53.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	56.9%	0.1%	60.6%	39.0%	53.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	56.9%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	53.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	56.9%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	53.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	56.9%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	53.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	66.8%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	53.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	66.8%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	53.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	66.8%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	53.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:35+00:00	66.8%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	53.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	66.8%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	53.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	66.8%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	53.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	66.8%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	53.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	66.8%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	53.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	66.2%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	69.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	66.2%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	69.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	66.2%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	69.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	66.2%	0.1%	58.5%	51.6%	69.3%
2026-10-14T10:33:57+00:00	66.2%	0.1%	58.5%	54.5%	69.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	66.2%	0.1%	70.3%	54.5%	69.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	66.2%	0.1%	70.3%	54.5%	69.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	66.2%	0.1%	70.3%	54.5%	69.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	69.6%	0.1%	70.3%	54.5%	69.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	69.6%	0.1%	70.3%	54.5%	69.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:34+00:00	69.6%	0.1%	70.3%	54.5%	69.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	69.6%	0.1%	70.3%	54.5%	69.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	69.6%	0.1%	70.3%	54.5%	69.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	69.6%	0.1%	78.0%	54.5%	69.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	69.6%	0.1%	78.0%	54.5%	69.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	69.6%	0.1%	78.0%	54.5%	69.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	63.7%	0.1%	78.0%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	63.7%	0.1%	78.0%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	63.7%	0.1%	78.0%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	63.7%	0.1%	78.0%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	63.7%	0.1%	78.0%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	63.7%	0.1%	72.4%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	63.7%	0.1%	72.4%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	63.7%	0.1%	72.4%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	64.5%	0.1%	72.4%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	64.5%	0.1%	72.4%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	64.5%	0.1%	72.4%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	64.5%	0.1%	72.4%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-15T04:48:00+00:00	64.5%	0.1%	72.4%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	64.5%	0.1%	71.4%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	64.5%	0.1%	71.4%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	64.5%	0.1%	71.4%	63.1%	62.8%
2026-10-15T07:50:06+00:00	64.3%	0.1%	71.4%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	64.3%	0.1%	71.4%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	64.3%	0.1%	71.4%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	64.3%	0.1%	71.4%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	64.3%	0.1%	71.4%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	64.3%	0.1%	77.1%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	64.3%	0.0%	77.1%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	64.3%	0.0%	77.1%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	65.3%	0.0%	77.1%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	65.3%	0.0%	77.1%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	65.3%	0.0%	77.1%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:09+00:00	65.3%	0.0%	77.1%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	65.3%	0.0%	78.1%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	65.3%	0.0%	78.1%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	65.3%	0.0%	78.1%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	65.3%	0.0%	78.1%	52.9%	76.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	63.5%	0.0%	78.1%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	63.5%	0.0%	78.1%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	63.5%	0.0%	78.1%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	63.5%	0.0%	78.1%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	63.5%	0.0%	75.1%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	63.5%	0.0%	75.1%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	63.5%	0.0%	75.1%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	61.6%	0.0%	75.1%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	61.6%	0.0%	75.1%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	61.6%	0.0%	75.1%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	61.6%	0.0%	75.1%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:48+00:00	61.6%	0.0%	75.1%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	61.6%	0.0%	69.7%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	61.6%	0.0%	69.7%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	61.6%	0.0%	69.7%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	61.6%	0.0%	69.7%	56.8%	74.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	61.9%	0.0%	69.7%	56.8%	80.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	61.9%	0.0%	69.7%	56.8%	80.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	61.9%	0.0%	69.7%	56.8%	80.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	61.9%	0.0%	69.7%	56.8%	80.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	61.9%	0.0%	75.4%	56.8%	80.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	61.9%	0.0%	75.4%	56.8%	80.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	61.9%	0.0%	75.4%	56.8%	80.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	61.9%	0.0%	75.4%	56.8%	80.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:50+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	75.4%	52.1%	80.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	75.4%	52.1%	80.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	75.4%	52.1%	80.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	75.4%	52.1%	80.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	77.5%	52.1%	80.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	77.5%	52.1%	80.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	77.5%	52.1%	80.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	61.0%	0.0%	77.5%	52.1%	75.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:39+00:00	61.0%	0.0%	77.5%	52.1%	75.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	61.0%	0.0%	77.5%	52.1%	75.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	61.0%	0.0%	77.5%	52.1%	75.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	61.0%	0.0%	77.5%	57.5%	75.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	61.0%	0.0%	77.5%	57.5%	75.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	61.0%	0.0%	77.5%	57.5%	75.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	61.0%	0.0%	77.5%	57.5%	75.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	77.5%	57.5%	75.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	77.5%	57.5%	75.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	77.5%	57.5%	75.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	77.5%	57.5%	75.2%
2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	77.5%	57.5%	75.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	66.0%	57.5%	75.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	66.0%	57.5%	75.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	62.9%	0.0%	66.0%	57.5%	75.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	75%	69.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.5655
WeatherNext 2	66%	70.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.4356
AIFS Single	63%	70.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.3956
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.3528
IFS HRES	57%	70.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3306
National Blend	23%	73.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0520
IFS Ensemble	<1%	81.4°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Houston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗