KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

74%

70%

65%

49%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 68.3¢Risks 68.35u

WN2NO 31.6¢Risks 31.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +31.65u · WN2 −31.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	0.6%	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	2.7%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	2.2%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	44.4%	18.9%	2.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	45.6%	64.3%	18.4%	—	58.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	58.3%	69.7%	16.4%	—	45.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	33.0%	77.6%	11.1%	—	35.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	36.9%	75.5%	5.3%	—	20.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	6.7%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	13.1%	47.4%	5.0%	—	7.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	17.2%	42.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	7.6%	29.7%	3.0%	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	10.8%	37.0%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	9.8%	24.0%	2.9%	—	7.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	5.4%	30.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	7.4%	25.9%	1.8%	—	5.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	5.2%	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	7.0%	17.6%	1.9%	—	4.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	7.1%	14.1%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.8%	14.7%	1.3%	—	3.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	4.5%	15.2%	0.9%	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.6%	17.4%	1.4%	5.2%	2.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.1%	16.6%	0.6%	—	1.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.5%	16.5%	0.5%	3.7%	0.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.3%	10.4%	0.4%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.9%	8.3%	0.7%	3.2%	1.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.7%	9.9%	0.3%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	11.7%	0.3%	1.1%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	7.9%	0.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	85.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	82.9°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	81.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	65%	82.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	79.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	78.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗