KIAH / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

74%

70%

65%

49%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 68.3¢Risks 68.35u

WN2NO 31.6¢Risks 31.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +31.65u · WN2 −31.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:25+00:00	9.8%	86.1%	48.5%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	9.8%	86.1%	48.5%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	9.8%	86.1%	48.5%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	9.8%	86.1%	48.5%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:07+00:00	9.8%	86.1%	48.5%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:07+00:00	9.8%	74.6%	21.4%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00	9.8%	74.6%	21.4%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	9.8%	74.6%	21.4%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:52+00:00	34.6%	74.6%	21.4%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	34.7%	74.6%	21.5%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:59+00:00	34.7%	74.4%	21.5%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	34.7%	74.4%	21.5%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	34.7%	74.4%	21.5%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	34.7%	74.4%	23.9%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	34.7%	74.4%	23.9%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	34.7%	74.4%	23.9%	95.4%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	53.6%	74.4%	23.9%	87.5%	64.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	53.6%	74.4%	23.9%	87.5%	64.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:54+00:00	53.6%	74.4%	23.9%	87.5%	64.7%
2026-10-11T21:59:01+00:00	53.6%	74.4%	23.9%	87.5%	64.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	53.6%	74.4%	23.9%	87.5%	64.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	53.6%	74.4%	49.2%	87.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:45+00:00	53.6%	74.4%	49.2%	87.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	53.6%	74.4%	49.2%	87.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	70.4%	74.4%	49.2%	87.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	70.4%	74.4%	49.2%	87.5%	64.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:38+00:00	70.4%	74.4%	49.2%	87.5%	64.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	88%	85.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	82.9°F	6.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	81.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
ICON	65%	82.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	79.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	78.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261018-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗