KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

12%

11%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 14.0¢Risks 6.98u

WN2NO 86.1¢Risks 43.03u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.03u · WN2 −43.03u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	8.5%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	0.0%	50.0%	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	55.6%	55.6%	0.0%	—	20.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	22.1%	36.4%	16.1%	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	11.4%	40.9%	2.3%	—	15.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.2%	10.4%	0.9%	—	4.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.6%	2.8%	0.3%	—	1.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.4%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	2.4%	1.1%	0.5%	—	3.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	3.9%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	2.9%	19.6%	0.4%	—	2.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.2%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	3.0%	6.8%	0.6%	—	1.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.4%	7.6%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	3.5%	7.1%	0.8%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	2.5%	4.7%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.3%	4.2%	0.8%	0.0%	0.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.9%	6.0%	0.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.7%	4.2%	0.3%	1.2%	0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.7%	3.3%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	2.8%	0.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	2.1%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	3.5%	0.1%	1.1%	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	2.3%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	1.9%	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.0%	2.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	85.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	82.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	78.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	79.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	7%	76.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	79.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗