KIAH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

12%

11%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 14.0¢Risks 6.98u

WN2NO 86.1¢Risks 43.03u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +43.03u · WN2 −43.03u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00	29.0%	46.9%	31.4%	57.5%	2.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	29.0%	55.7%	31.4%	57.5%	2.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	29.0%	55.7%	31.4%	57.5%	2.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	20.0%	55.7%	31.4%	57.5%	2.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	20.1%	55.7%	31.5%	57.5%	2.7%
2026-10-12T15:27:38+00:00	20.1%	55.7%	31.5%	57.5%	2.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	20.1%	57.3%	31.5%	57.5%	2.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	20.1%	57.3%	31.5%	57.5%	2.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	20.1%	57.3%	12.6%	57.5%	2.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	20.1%	57.3%	12.6%	57.5%	2.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	20.1%	57.3%	12.6%	57.5%	2.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	17.3%	57.3%	12.6%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	17.3%	57.3%	12.6%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	17.3%	57.3%	12.6%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	17.3%	57.3%	12.6%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	17.3%	57.3%	14.3%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	17.3%	57.3%	14.3%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	17.3%	57.3%	14.3%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	17.3%	57.3%	14.3%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	16.4%	57.3%	14.3%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	16.4%	57.3%	14.3%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	16.4%	57.3%	14.3%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:13+00:00	16.4%	57.3%	14.3%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	16.4%	57.3%	14.3%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	16.4%	57.3%	22.8%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	16.4%	57.3%	22.8%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	16.4%	57.3%	22.8%	48.1%	70.4%
2026-10-13T08:03:57+00:00	13.3%	57.3%	22.8%	29.7%	46.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	13.3%	57.3%	22.8%	29.7%	46.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	13.3%	57.3%	22.8%	29.7%	46.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	13.3%	57.3%	22.8%	29.7%	46.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	13.3%	57.3%	22.8%	29.7%	46.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:40+00:00	13.3%	42.3%	11.0%	29.7%	46.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	13.3%	42.3%	11.0%	29.7%	46.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	13.3%	42.3%	11.0%	29.7%	46.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	20.3%	42.3%	11.1%	29.7%	46.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	20.3%	42.3%	11.1%	29.7%	46.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:48+00:00	20.3%	41.2%	11.1%	29.7%	46.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	20.3%	41.2%	11.1%	29.7%	46.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	20.3%	41.2%	9.9%	29.7%	46.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	20.3%	41.2%	9.9%	29.7%	46.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	20.3%	41.2%	9.9%	29.7%	46.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	20.3%	41.2%	9.9%	29.7%	46.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	17.3%	41.2%	9.9%	29.7%	35.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	17.3%	41.2%	9.9%	29.7%	35.1%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	17.3%	41.2%	9.9%	29.7%	35.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	17.3%	41.2%	9.9%	29.7%	35.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	17.3%	41.2%	12.8%	41.6%	35.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	17.3%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	17.3%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	13.3%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	13.3%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T02:59:59+00:00	13.3%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:35+00:00	13.3%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	13.3%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	13.3%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	13.3%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:18+00:00	13.3%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	35.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	12.1%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	7.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	12.1%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	7.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	12.1%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	7.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	12.1%	41.1%	12.9%	41.6%	7.2%
2026-10-14T10:33:58+00:00	12.1%	41.1%	12.9%	11.6%	7.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:56+00:00	12.1%	22.2%	5.7%	11.6%	7.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	12.1%	22.2%	5.7%	11.6%	7.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	12.1%	22.2%	5.7%	11.6%	7.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:30+00:00	11.3%	22.2%	5.7%	11.6%	7.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	11.4%	22.2%	5.7%	11.6%	7.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	85.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	82.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	78.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	79.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	7%	76.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	79.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗