KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

62%

53%

49%

22%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.5¢Risks 50.45u

ICONNO 49.5¢Risks 49.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.55u · ICON −49.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	16.1%	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	76.4%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	8.8%	20.8%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	81.6%	41.6%	0.9%	—	54.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	52.9%	89.7%	28.5%	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	35.8%	64.2%	32.3%	—	30.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	23.6%	78.8%	17.9%	—	43.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	50.8%	76.8%	27.9%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	17.3%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	57.8%	44.8%	28.4%	—	29.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	39.3%	52.7%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	44.5%	49.1%	22.3%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	40.6%	55.7%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	36.6%	40.4%	20.3%	—	33.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	31.7%	66.5%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	26.8%	34.9%	12.8%	0.0%	26.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	30.7%	53.2%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	29.2%	53.3%	15.5%	—	27.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	12.9%	64.3%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	25.1%	14.0%	14.7%	0.0%	28.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	38.1%	61.9%	12.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	32.0%	37.7%	15.1%	25.6%	28.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	32.5%	43.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	83.8°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	82.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	81.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	81.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	78.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗