KIAH / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

62%

53%

49%

22%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.5¢Risks 50.45u

ICONNO 49.5¢Risks 49.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.55u · ICON −49.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00	62.0%	92.2%	56.4%	47.6%	59.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	62.0%	92.2%	55.3%	47.6%	59.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	62.0%	92.2%	55.3%	47.6%	59.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	62.0%	92.2%	55.3%	47.6%	59.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00	63.7%	92.2%	55.3%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	63.7%	92.2%	55.3%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	63.7%	92.2%	55.3%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	63.7%	92.2%	55.3%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	63.7%	92.2%	55.3%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	63.7%	93.0%	58.2%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	63.7%	93.0%	58.2%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	63.7%	93.0%	58.2%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	63.7%	93.0%	58.2%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	63.7%	92.3%	58.2%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	63.7%	88.0%	58.2%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	63.7%	88.0%	58.2%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	63.7%	88.0%	58.2%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	63.7%	88.0%	50.0%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	63.7%	88.0%	50.0%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	63.7%	88.0%	50.0%	52.7%	43.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	58.3%	88.0%	50.0%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	58.3%	88.0%	50.0%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	58.3%	88.0%	50.0%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	58.3%	88.0%	50.0%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	58.3%	88.0%	50.0%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	58.3%	88.1%	41.8%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	58.3%	88.1%	41.8%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	58.3%	88.1%	41.8%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	57.4%	88.1%	41.8%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	57.4%	88.1%	41.8%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	57.4%	88.1%	41.8%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:27+00:00	57.4%	88.1%	41.8%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	57.4%	88.1%	48.8%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	57.4%	88.1%	48.8%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	57.4%	88.1%	48.8%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	57.4%	88.1%	48.8%	42.0%	33.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00	56.8%	88.1%	48.8%	47.1%	25.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	56.8%	88.1%	48.8%	47.1%	25.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	56.8%	88.1%	48.8%	47.1%	25.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	56.8%	88.1%	48.8%	47.1%	25.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	56.8%	88.1%	48.8%	47.1%	25.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	56.8%	84.6%	44.9%	47.1%	25.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	56.8%	84.6%	44.9%	47.1%	25.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	56.8%	84.6%	44.9%	47.1%	25.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	52.0%	84.1%	44.9%	47.1%	25.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	52.0%	84.1%	44.9%	47.1%	25.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	52.0%	74.4%	44.9%	47.1%	25.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	52.0%	74.4%	44.9%	47.1%	25.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	52.0%	74.4%	36.1%	47.1%	25.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	52.0%	74.4%	36.1%	47.1%	25.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	52.0%	74.4%	36.1%	47.1%	25.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	52.0%	74.4%	36.1%	47.1%	25.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	51.0%	74.4%	36.1%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	51.0%	74.4%	36.1%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	51.0%	74.4%	36.1%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	51.0%	74.4%	36.1%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	51.0%	74.4%	34.9%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	51.0%	74.4%	34.9%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	51.0%	74.4%	34.9%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	53.9%	74.4%	34.9%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	53.9%	74.4%	34.9%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	53.9%	74.4%	34.9%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	53.9%	74.4%	34.9%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00	53.9%	74.4%	34.9%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	53.9%	74.4%	58.9%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	53.9%	74.4%	58.9%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	53.9%	74.4%	58.9%	45.1%	23.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00	62.0%	74.4%	58.9%	48.9%	21.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	62.0%	74.4%	58.9%	48.9%	21.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	62.0%	74.4%	58.9%	48.9%	21.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	62.0%	74.4%	58.9%	48.9%	21.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	62.0%	74.4%	58.9%	48.9%	21.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00	62.0%	79.4%	52.7%	48.9%	21.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	62.0%	79.4%	52.7%	48.9%	21.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	83.8°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	82.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	81.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	81.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	78.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗