KIAH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

60%

60%

40%

39%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.2¢Risks 59.15u

ICONNO 40.8¢Risks 40.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.85u · ICON −40.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	12.0%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	2.6%	—	54.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	51.2%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	78.4%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	72.2%	—	46.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	81.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	8.5%	68.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	81.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	43.0%	66.4%	0.4%	33.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	73.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	40.6%	71.5%	18.4%	46.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	67.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	63.5%	67.7%	29.6%	46.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	45.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	63.3%	48.4%	21.8%	37.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	53.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	48.3%	49.2%	27.2%	44.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	20.8%	50.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	43.0%	50.9%	20.2%	40.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	40.2%	54.5%	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	37.3%	55.5%	12.9%	33.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	33.5%	53.8%	—	28.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	41.3%	58.7%	13.1%	32.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	34.4%	73.5%	—	33.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	32.1%	73.2%	12.3%	32.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	44.7%	72.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	42.4%	74.5%	19.0%	34.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	35.7%	75.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	88%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	79%	85.8°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	84.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	84.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	82.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	82.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗