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KIAH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
79%
AIFS
60%
HRES
60%
WN2
40%
ICON
39%
Consensus
67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 59.2¢Risks 59.15u
VS
ICONNO 40.8¢Risks 40.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.85u · ICON −40.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 51.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00AIFS Single: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 32.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00IFS HRES: 59.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 39.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 08:1910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:0051.9%76.6%32.8%60.6%39.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0051.9%76.6%53.5%60.6%39.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0051.9%76.6%53.5%60.6%39.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:0051.9%76.6%53.5%60.6%39.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:0059.7%76.6%53.5%59.6%38.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0059.7%76.6%53.5%59.6%38.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0059.7%76.6%53.5%59.6%38.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0059.7%76.6%53.5%59.6%38.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:0059.7%76.6%53.5%59.6%38.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:0059.7%79.4%39.8%59.6%38.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:0059.7%79.4%39.8%59.6%38.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend88%86.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble79%85.8°F2.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single60%84.5°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES60%84.5°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%84.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 240%82.7°F3.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON39%82.5°F3.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗