KIAH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

16%

14%

14%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.7¢Risks 4.83u

WN2NO 90.3¢Risks 45.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.17u · WN2 −45.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	51.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	50.0%	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	48.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	41.6%	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	24.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	0.0%	24.9%	—	18.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	26.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	15.8%	18.9%	0.0%	17.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	18.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	31.0%	25.4%	4.8%	14.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	27.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	18.4%	17.4%	3.9%	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	20.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	15.9%	22.4%	2.5%	13.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	23.1%	—	11.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	14.3%	21.3%	1.8%	8.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	5.1%	22.0%	—	7.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	13.1%	22.8%	2.7%	7.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	12.1%	22.2%	—	7.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	10.6%	23.7%	2.6%	5.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	13.7%	22.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	12.6%	17.7%	2.0%	7.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	10.0%	21.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	25%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	85.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	85.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	87.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	84.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Houston · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗