KIAH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

16%

14%

14%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 9.7¢Risks 4.83u

WN2NO 90.3¢Risks 45.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.17u · WN2 −45.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:07+00:00	28.5%	27.2%	28.9%	28.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	28.5%	27.2%	28.9%	28.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	28.5%	27.2%	28.9%	28.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	28.5%	27.2%	28.9%	28.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	28.5%	27.2%	28.9%	28.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	28.5%	27.2%	25.5%	28.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	28.5%	28.2%	25.5%	28.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	28.5%	28.2%	25.5%	28.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	35.4%	28.2%	25.5%	28.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	35.6%	28.2%	25.8%	28.2%	0.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	35.6%	28.2%	25.8%	28.2%	0.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	35.6%	28.2%	25.8%	28.2%	0.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	35.6%	28.2%	26.4%	28.2%	0.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	35.6%	28.2%	26.4%	28.2%	0.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	35.6%	28.2%	26.4%	28.2%	0.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	35.6%	28.2%	26.4%	28.2%	0.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	21.0%	28.2%	26.4%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	21.0%	28.2%	26.4%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	21.0%	28.2%	26.4%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	21.0%	28.2%	26.4%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	21.0%	28.2%	18.8%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	21.0%	28.2%	18.8%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	21.0%	28.2%	18.8%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	23.1%	28.2%	18.8%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	23.1%	28.2%	18.8%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	23.1%	28.2%	18.8%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	23.1%	28.2%	18.8%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:50+00:00	23.1%	28.2%	18.8%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	23.1%	28.2%	16.7%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	23.1%	28.2%	16.7%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	23.1%	28.2%	16.7%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	23.1%	28.2%	16.7%	32.0%	45.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	19.7%	28.2%	16.7%	32.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	19.7%	28.2%	16.7%	32.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	19.7%	28.2%	16.7%	32.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	19.7%	28.2%	16.7%	32.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	19.7%	15.9%	12.8%	32.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	19.7%	15.9%	12.8%	32.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	19.7%	15.9%	12.8%	32.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	19.7%	15.9%	12.8%	32.0%	55.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:50+00:00	18.7%	15.9%	12.8%	25.7%	55.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	18.7%	18.0%	12.8%	25.7%	55.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	18.7%	17.4%	12.8%	25.7%	55.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	18.7%	17.4%	12.8%	25.7%	55.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	18.7%	17.4%	15.2%	25.7%	55.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	18.7%	17.4%	15.2%	25.7%	55.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	18.7%	17.4%	15.2%	25.7%	55.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	18.3%	17.4%	15.2%	25.7%	44.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	18.3%	17.4%	15.2%	25.7%	44.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	18.3%	17.4%	15.2%	25.7%	44.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	18.3%	17.4%	15.2%	25.7%	44.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	18.3%	17.4%	15.2%	23.4%	44.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	18.3%	17.4%	17.3%	23.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	18.3%	17.4%	17.3%	23.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	18.3%	17.4%	17.3%	23.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	19.2%	17.4%	17.3%	23.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	19.2%	17.4%	17.3%	23.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	19.2%	17.4%	17.3%	23.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	19.2%	17.4%	17.3%	23.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00	19.2%	17.4%	17.3%	23.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	19.2%	17.4%	15.7%	23.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	19.2%	17.4%	15.7%	23.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	19.2%	17.4%	15.7%	23.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:49+00:00	17.7%	17.4%	15.7%	19.8%	35.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	17.7%	17.4%	15.7%	19.8%	35.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	17.7%	17.4%	15.7%	19.8%	35.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	17.7%	17.4%	15.7%	19.8%	35.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	17.7%	17.4%	15.7%	19.8%	35.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	17.7%	34.5%	10.7%	19.8%	35.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	17.7%	34.5%	10.7%	19.8%	35.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	17.7%	34.5%	10.7%	19.8%	35.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	17.2%	34.5%	10.7%	19.8%	35.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	17.1%	34.5%	10.7%	19.9%	35.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	10.7%	19.9%	35.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	10.7%	19.9%	35.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	10.7%	19.9%	35.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	8.7%	19.9%	35.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	8.7%	19.9%	35.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	8.7%	19.9%	35.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	8.7%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	8.7%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	8.7%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	8.7%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	8.7%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	9.0%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	9.0%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	17.1%	26.2%	9.0%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	17.6%	26.2%	9.0%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	17.6%	26.2%	9.0%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	17.6%	26.2%	9.0%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:27+00:00	17.6%	26.2%	9.0%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	17.6%	26.2%	10.7%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	17.6%	26.2%	10.7%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	17.6%	26.2%	10.7%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	17.6%	26.2%	10.7%	19.4%	34.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:35+00:00	15.3%	26.2%	10.7%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	15.3%	26.2%	10.7%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	15.3%	26.2%	10.7%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	15.3%	26.2%	10.7%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	15.3%	26.2%	10.7%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	15.3%	17.0%	4.8%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	15.3%	17.0%	4.8%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	15.3%	17.0%	4.8%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	15.3%	17.0%	4.8%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	15.3%	17.0%	4.8%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	15.3%	11.2%	4.8%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	15.3%	11.2%	4.8%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	15.3%	11.2%	5.1%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	15.3%	11.2%	5.1%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	15.3%	11.2%	5.1%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	15.3%	11.2%	5.1%	15.4%	24.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	14.8%	11.2%	5.1%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	14.8%	11.2%	5.1%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	14.8%	11.2%	5.1%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	14.8%	11.2%	5.1%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	14.8%	11.2%	4.3%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	14.8%	11.2%	4.3%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	14.8%	11.2%	4.3%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	15.8%	11.2%	4.3%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	15.8%	11.2%	4.3%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	15.8%	11.2%	4.3%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	15.8%	11.2%	4.3%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:12+00:00	15.8%	11.2%	4.3%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	15.8%	11.2%	10.9%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	15.8%	11.2%	10.9%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	15.8%	11.2%	10.9%	14.5%	22.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00	13.6%	11.2%	10.9%	16.2%	15.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	13.6%	11.2%	10.9%	16.2%	15.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	13.6%	11.2%	10.9%	16.2%	15.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	13.6%	11.2%	10.9%	16.2%	15.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	13.6%	11.2%	10.9%	16.2%	15.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:08+00:00	13.6%	14.2%	3.1%	16.2%	15.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	13.6%	14.2%	3.1%	16.2%	15.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	25%	88.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	19%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	85.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	85.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	87.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	84.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Houston · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗