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KIAH / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
29%
EPS
20%
AIFS
16%
HRES
15%
ICON
4%
Consensus
21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 16.0¢Risks 16.05u
VS
ICONNO 84.0¢Risks 83.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +83.95u · ICON −83.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-11 12:0010-15 12:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSIFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.0%——0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:001.3%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0014.0%——17.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:004.2%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0024.8%——18.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:009.3%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0017.2%——20.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0020.8%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0035.9%——16.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.8%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:004.0%——16.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.8%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0018.6%——19.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:007.9%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0026.1%——22.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0030.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0028.3%——21.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0011.9%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0028.1%——25.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0025.1%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0024.7%——28.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0025.3%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:008.6%——28.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:008.5%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0021.0%—27.2%18.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0013.6%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:009.8%—21.6%13.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0010.8%—10.3%—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:008.3%—0.4%13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:009.4%—5.0%—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:005.2%0.0%15.9%12.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00——23.9%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%88.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 229%84.4°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble20%85.2°F2.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single16%81.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES15%80.7°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON4%69.4°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261026-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 88°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗