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KIAH / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Houston, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
29%
EPS
20%
AIFS
16%
HRES
15%
ICON
4%
Consensus
21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 16.0¢Risks 16.05u
VS
ICONNO 84.0¢Risks 83.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +83.95u · ICON −83.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00IFS HRES: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00IFS HRES: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:0015.7%19.7%28.6%14.6%3.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0015.7%19.7%28.6%14.6%3.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0015.7%19.7%28.6%14.6%3.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0015.7%19.7%28.6%14.6%3.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:0015.7%19.7%28.6%14.6%3.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%88.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 229%84.4°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble20%85.2°F2.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single16%81.7°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES15%80.7°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON4%69.4°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KIAH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIAH-20261026-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Houston high ≥ 88°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗