KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

63%

56%

52%

49%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.1¢Risks 29.03u

ICONNO 41.9¢Risks 20.97u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.97u · ICON −20.97u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	14.5%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	46.1%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	5.9%	41.3%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	50.7%	52.1%	0.4%	—	30.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	37.1%	16.5%	24.9%	—	43.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	52.3%	6.3%	42.4%	—	50.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	39.7%	54.0%	49.2%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	36.1%	54.2%	33.8%	—	45.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	11.1%	58.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	43.9%	66.2%	41.3%	—	42.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	42.0%	69.8%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	37.3%	64.4%	37.3%	—	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	46.2%	67.4%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	49.0%	65.2%	49.0%	—	40.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	43.0%	73.5%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	31.2%	67.0%	43.9%	—	31.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	51.1%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	63.9%	67.9%	40.3%	—	35.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	37.8%	62.2%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	48.8%	62.6%	36.3%	0.0%	27.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	52.4%	59.5%	27.3%	—	31.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.7%	63.4%	61.1%	45.0%	75.4%	38.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	63.9%	41.0%	—	31.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	75.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	75.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	75.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	74.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	49%	74.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗