KICT / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

63%

56%

52%

49%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 58.1¢Risks 29.03u

ICONNO 41.9¢Risks 20.97u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.97u · ICON −20.97u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:58+00:00	65.5%	55.0%	74.3%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	65.5%	52.5%	74.3%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	65.5%	52.5%	74.3%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	65.5%	52.5%	68.3%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:31+00:00	65.5%	52.5%	68.3%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	65.5%	52.5%	68.3%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	66.3%	52.5%	68.3%	47.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	66.3%	52.5%	68.3%	47.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	66.3%	52.5%	68.3%	47.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	66.3%	52.5%	68.3%	47.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	66.3%	52.5%	68.3%	47.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	66.3%	52.5%	70.3%	47.3%	38.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	66.3%	52.5%	70.3%	47.3%	38.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	66.3%	52.5%	70.3%	47.3%	38.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	63.7%	52.5%	70.3%	47.3%	38.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	63.7%	52.5%	70.3%	47.3%	38.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	63.7%	52.5%	70.3%	47.3%	38.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	63.7%	52.5%	70.3%	47.3%	38.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:55+00:00	56.9%	47.8%	55.1%	32.2%	45.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	56.9%	47.8%	55.1%	32.2%	45.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	56.9%	47.8%	62.6%	32.2%	45.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	56.9%	47.8%	62.6%	32.2%	45.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	56.9%	47.8%	62.6%	32.2%	45.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	63.0%	47.8%	62.6%	32.2%	48.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	63.0%	47.8%	62.6%	32.2%	48.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	63.0%	47.8%	62.6%	32.2%	48.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	63.0%	47.8%	62.6%	32.2%	48.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	63.0%	52.0%	67.2%	56.4%	48.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	63.0%	52.0%	67.2%	56.4%	48.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	63.0%	52.0%	67.2%	56.4%	48.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	63.0%	52.0%	67.2%	56.4%	48.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	63.0%	52.0%	67.2%	56.4%	48.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	63.0%	52.0%	67.2%	56.4%	48.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	67%	75.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	75.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	75.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	74.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	49%	74.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Wichita high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗