KICT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 16.3¢Risks 16.30u

WN2NO 83.7¢Risks 83.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.70u · WN2 −83.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	4.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	10.1%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	1.6%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	2.2%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	0.2%	29.4%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	12.2%	1.1%	0.6%	—	3.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.4%	1.0%	0.4%	14.0%	1.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	30%	75.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	18%	70.0°F	9.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	71.4°F	6.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	6%	67.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	69.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	69.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261026-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Wichita runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗