KICT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Wichita, KSHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 16.3¢Risks 16.30u

WN2NO 83.7¢Risks 83.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.70u · WN2 −83.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:32:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00	23.3%	20.8%	12.1%	2.2%	10.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	23.3%	20.8%	12.1%	2.2%	10.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	23.3%	20.8%	12.1%	2.2%	10.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	23.3%	20.8%	12.1%	2.2%	10.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:19+00:00	23.3%	20.8%	12.1%	2.2%	10.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:06+00:00	23.3%	18.1%	11.3%	2.2%	10.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:36+00:00	23.3%	18.1%	11.3%	2.2%	10.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	23.3%	18.1%	11.3%	2.2%	10.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	28.3%	18.1%	11.3%	2.2%	10.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	28.3%	18.1%	11.2%	2.2%	10.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:43+00:00	28.3%	17.7%	11.2%	2.2%	10.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	28.3%	17.7%	11.2%	2.2%	10.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	28.3%	17.7%	11.2%	2.2%	10.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	28.3%	17.7%	0.4%	2.2%	10.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	28.3%	17.7%	0.4%	2.2%	10.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:08+00:00	28.3%	17.7%	0.4%	2.2%	10.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	15.2%	17.7%	0.4%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	15.2%	17.7%	0.4%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	15.2%	17.7%	0.4%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	15.2%	17.7%	0.4%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	15.2%	17.7%	0.4%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	15.2%	17.7%	0.5%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	15.2%	17.7%	0.5%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	15.2%	17.7%	0.5%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	14.4%	17.7%	0.5%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	14.4%	17.7%	0.5%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	14.4%	17.7%	0.5%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:00	14.4%	17.7%	0.5%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	14.4%	17.7%	0.5%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:31+00:00	14.4%	17.7%	0.1%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	14.4%	17.7%	0.1%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	14.4%	17.7%	0.1%	14.2%	42.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	5.0%	17.7%	0.1%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	5.0%	17.7%	0.1%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	5.0%	17.7%	0.1%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	5.0%	17.7%	0.1%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:52+00:00	5.0%	12.4%	2.3%	30.3%	6.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	5.0%	12.4%	2.3%	30.3%	6.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	5.0%	12.4%	2.3%	30.3%	6.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	5.0%	12.4%	2.3%	30.3%	6.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	4.9%	12.4%	2.3%	30.3%	6.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	4.9%	12.4%	2.3%	30.3%	6.3%
2026-10-20T15:32:18+00:00	4.9%	12.8%	2.3%	30.3%	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	30%	75.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	18%	70.0°F	9.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	71.4°F	6.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	6%	67.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	69.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	69.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KICT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KICT-20261026-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Wichita runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗