KIND / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

50%

28%

27%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.5¢Risks 41.55u

EPSNO 58.5¢Risks 58.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.45u · EPS −58.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	16.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	11.9%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	41.0%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	1.1%	24.4%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	37.6%	2.7%	1.1%	—	30.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.5%	45.6%	31.7%	12.0%	—	17.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	26.4%	43.9%	8.7%	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	25.5%	31.6%	7.8%	—	12.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	0.1%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	13.4%	31.5%	6.9%	—	16.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	7.5%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	14.1%	24.1%	3.4%	—	10.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	15.0%	16.1%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	14.4%	24.4%	2.5%	—	13.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	12.7%	25.3%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	9.0%	27.9%	3.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	6.6%	27.4%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	5.8%	25.1%	1.8%	0.0%	5.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	7.6%	26.2%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	8.1%	25.5%	1.6%	—	5.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	6.7%	23.1%	0.0%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	6.5%	16.8%	1.4%	0.0%	3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	10.8%	21.6%	1.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	19.9%	27.6%	1.2%	25.6%	7.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	16.6%	26.9%	0.8%	—	3.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	11.3%	24.0%	0.5%	22.0%	4.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	18.2%	30.0%	1.5%	—	6.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	16.3%	30.5%	2.5%	35.8%	7.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	32.5%	1.0%	—	2.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	75.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	72.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	69.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	69.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	69.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗