KIND / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

50%

28%

27%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.5¢Risks 41.55u

EPSNO 58.5¢Risks 58.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.45u · EPS −58.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	82.3%	25.5%	64.9%	55.0%	18.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	82.3%	25.5%	64.9%	55.0%	18.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	82.3%	25.5%	64.9%	55.0%	18.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	82.3%	25.5%	64.9%	55.0%	18.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	76.7%	25.5%	64.9%	55.0%	18.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	76.7%	28.1%	64.9%	55.0%	18.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:35+00:00	76.7%	28.1%	64.9%	55.0%	18.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	76.7%	28.1%	64.9%	55.0%	18.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	76.7%	28.1%	62.6%	55.0%	18.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	76.7%	28.1%	62.6%	55.0%	18.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	76.7%	28.1%	62.6%	55.0%	18.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	81.8%	28.1%	62.6%	55.0%	60.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:36+00:00	81.8%	28.1%	62.6%	55.0%	60.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	81.8%	28.1%	62.6%	55.0%	60.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	81.8%	28.1%	62.6%	55.0%	60.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	81.8%	28.1%	62.6%	50.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:37+00:00	81.8%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	60.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	81.8%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	81.8%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	73.3%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:19+00:00	73.3%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:50+00:00	73.3%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	73.3%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	73.3%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	73.3%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	73.3%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	73.3%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	60.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	75.7%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	66.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	75.7%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	66.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	75.7%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	66.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	75.7%	28.1%	69.9%	50.6%	66.5%
2026-10-14T10:33:28+00:00	75.7%	28.1%	69.9%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:52+00:00	75.7%	11.0%	61.1%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	75.7%	11.0%	61.1%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	75.7%	11.0%	61.1%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	66.8%	11.0%	61.1%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	67.2%	11.0%	61.0%	39.8%	66.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:13+00:00	64.9%	10.9%	51.0%	31.4%	33.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	64.9%	10.9%	47.1%	31.4%	33.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	64.9%	10.9%	47.1%	31.4%	33.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	64.9%	10.9%	47.1%	31.4%	33.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	70.7%	10.9%	47.1%	31.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	70.7%	10.9%	47.1%	31.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	70.7%	10.9%	47.1%	31.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	70.7%	10.9%	47.1%	31.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	70.7%	10.9%	47.1%	31.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	70.7%	10.0%	47.9%	31.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	70.7%	10.0%	47.9%	31.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	70.7%	10.0%	47.9%	31.4%	25.5%
2026-10-16T13:28:36+00:00	71.4%	10.0%	47.9%	17.9%	25.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	71.5%	10.0%	47.9%	17.9%	25.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	71.5%	8.7%	47.9%	17.9%	25.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	71.5%	8.7%	47.9%	17.9%	25.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	71.5%	8.7%	47.9%	17.9%	25.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	71.5%	8.7%	45.7%	17.9%	25.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	71.5%	8.7%	45.7%	17.9%	25.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	71.5%	8.7%	45.7%	17.9%	25.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:03+00:00	73.0%	8.7%	45.7%	17.9%	27.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:31+00:00	73.0%	8.7%	45.7%	17.9%	27.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	73.0%	8.7%	45.7%	17.9%	27.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	73.0%	8.7%	45.7%	17.9%	27.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	73.0%	8.7%	45.7%	26.8%	27.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	73.0%	8.7%	50.0%	26.8%	27.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	73.0%	8.7%	50.0%	26.8%	27.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	73.0%	8.7%	50.0%	26.8%	27.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	74.4%	8.7%	50.0%	26.8%	27.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	74.4%	8.7%	50.0%	26.8%	27.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	74.4%	8.7%	50.0%	26.8%	27.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	74.4%	8.7%	50.0%	26.8%	27.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	75.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	72.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	69.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	69.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	69.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗