KIND / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

88%

54%

54%

38%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.9¢Risks 63.85u

ICONNO 36.1¢Risks 36.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.15u · ICON −36.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	11.4%	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	19.8%	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	10.7%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	15.9%	41.3%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	41.6%	52.1%	4.5%	—	28.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	77.4%	58.7%	42.7%	15.6%	—	31.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	49.2%	47.7%	24.5%	—	38.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	38.2%	44.4%	24.8%	—	26.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	1.5%	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	28.6%	44.2%	18.4%	—	34.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.4%	13.2%	45.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	17.8%	43.9%	14.6%	—	29.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	11.6%	49.1%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	9.8%	47.2%	7.9%	—	19.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	12.7%	47.2%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	7.9%	48.0%	6.2%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	13.0%	53.0%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	14.5%	46.9%	4.9%	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	35.5%	51.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	47.8%	56.5%	6.2%	—	28.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	47.8%	59.0%	0.0%	—	23.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	37.4%	59.2%	9.4%	0.0%	24.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	52.4%	66.4%	11.9%	—	29.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	51.2%	66.9%	15.9%	70.2%	36.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	68.7%	11.5%	—	21.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	75.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	73.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	70.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	69.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗