KIND / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

88%

54%

54%

38%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 63.9¢Risks 63.85u

ICONNO 36.1¢Risks 36.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +36.15u · ICON −36.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:32:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:14+00:00	85.9%	36.3%	82.7%	38.1%	75.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	85.9%	36.3%	82.7%	38.1%	75.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	85.9%	36.3%	84.8%	38.1%	75.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	85.9%	36.3%	84.8%	38.1%	75.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	85.9%	36.3%	84.8%	38.1%	75.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	85.9%	36.3%	84.8%	38.1%	75.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	92.9%	36.3%	84.8%	51.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	92.9%	36.3%	84.8%	51.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	92.9%	36.3%	84.8%	51.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	92.9%	36.3%	84.8%	51.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	92.9%	36.3%	79.8%	51.8%	68.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	92.9%	36.3%	79.8%	51.8%	68.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	92.9%	36.3%	79.8%	51.8%	68.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	89.3%	36.3%	79.8%	51.8%	68.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	89.3%	36.3%	79.8%	51.8%	68.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	89.3%	36.3%	79.8%	51.8%	68.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	89.3%	36.3%	79.8%	51.8%	68.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:54+00:00	75.1%	26.2%	72.4%	31.1%	19.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	75.1%	26.2%	80.5%	31.1%	19.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	75.1%	26.2%	80.5%	31.1%	19.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	75.1%	26.2%	80.5%	31.1%	19.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00	85.0%	26.2%	80.5%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	85.0%	26.2%	80.5%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	85.0%	26.2%	80.5%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	85.0%	26.2%	80.5%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	85.0%	26.2%	80.5%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00	85.0%	41.7%	87.1%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	85.0%	41.7%	87.1%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	85.0%	41.7%	87.1%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:59+00:00	84.4%	41.7%	87.1%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	84.5%	41.7%	87.1%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:34+00:00	84.5%	42.9%	87.1%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	84.5%	42.9%	87.1%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	84.5%	42.9%	87.1%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	84.5%	42.9%	79.9%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	84.5%	42.9%	79.9%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	84.5%	42.9%	79.9%	43.2%	44.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	87.3%	42.9%	79.9%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	87.3%	42.9%	79.9%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	87.3%	42.9%	79.9%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:02+00:00	87.3%	42.9%	79.9%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	87.3%	42.9%	79.9%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	87.3%	42.9%	84.1%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	87.3%	42.9%	84.1%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	87.3%	42.9%	84.1%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	90.1%	42.9%	84.1%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	90.1%	42.9%	84.1%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	90.1%	42.9%	84.1%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:39+00:00	90.1%	42.9%	84.1%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	90.1%	42.9%	84.1%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	90.1%	42.9%	90.7%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	90.1%	42.9%	90.7%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	90.1%	42.9%	90.7%	44.2%	34.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	89.8%	42.9%	90.7%	44.2%	37.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	89.8%	42.9%	90.7%	44.2%	37.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	89.8%	42.9%	90.7%	44.2%	37.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	89.8%	42.9%	90.7%	44.2%	37.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00	89.8%	53.5%	87.9%	54.3%	37.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	89.8%	53.5%	87.9%	54.3%	37.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	89.8%	53.5%	87.9%	54.3%	37.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	89.8%	53.5%	87.9%	54.3%	37.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	89.9%	53.5%	87.9%	54.3%	37.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:23+00:00	89.9%	53.5%	87.9%	54.3%	37.8%
2026-10-20T15:32:00+00:00	89.9%	53.5%	87.9%	54.3%	37.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	75.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	73.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	70.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	69.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗