KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

47%

20%

14%

12%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.0¢Risks 30.05u

EPSNO 70.0¢Risks 69.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.95u · EPS −69.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	4.6%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	7.3%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	0.5%	33.0%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	7.4%	47.9%	6.7%	—	21.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	1.7%	36.4%	8.2%	—	7.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	0.4%	29.6%	1.2%	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	25.3%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	2.4%	27.4%	0.7%	—	4.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	0.0%	28.3%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	1.9%	27.9%	0.8%	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	1.8%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	5.0%	24.1%	1.1%	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	2.5%	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	2.5%	25.9%	1.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	5.9%	27.6%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	3.0%	24.7%	2.3%	19.7%	2.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	21.1%	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	21.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	74.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	74.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	69.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	66.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	70.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗