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KIND / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
48%
WN2
47%
HRES
20%
ICON
14%
EPS
12%
Consensus
31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 30.0¢Risks 30.05u
VS
EPSNO 70.0¢Risks 69.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.95u · EPS −69.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00AIFS Single: 50.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00AIFS Single: 48.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00AIFS Single: 48.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00IFS HRES: 27.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00IFS HRES: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00ICON: 35.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:0050.7%12.6%64.5%27.3%35.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:0050.7%12.6%60.8%27.3%35.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:0050.7%12.6%60.8%27.3%35.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:0050.7%12.6%60.8%27.3%35.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:32+00:0050.0%12.6%60.8%20.2%13.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:0050.0%12.6%60.8%20.2%13.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:0050.0%12.6%60.8%20.2%13.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:0050.0%12.6%60.8%20.2%13.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:0050.0%12.6%60.8%20.2%13.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:0050.0%11.4%46.6%20.2%13.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:0050.0%11.4%46.6%20.2%13.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:0050.0%11.4%46.6%20.2%13.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:0048.5%11.4%46.6%20.6%13.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:0048.5%11.6%46.6%20.2%13.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%75.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
AIFS Single48%74.3°F5.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 247%74.1°F4.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES20%69.0°F6.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON14%66.6°F7.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble12%70.5°F3.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗