KIND / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

66%

30%

22%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.8¢Risks 43.75u

HRESNO 56.2¢Risks 56.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.25u · HRES −56.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	55.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	52.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	50.6%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	0.1%	43.3%	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	2.1%	50.7%	1.4%	—	12.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.8%	12.4%	55.8%	6.2%	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	9.0%	52.3%	26.4%	—	14.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	17.9%	45.2%	10.4%	—	13.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	0.0%	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	10.8%	50.8%	12.5%	—	4.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	16.2%	49.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	28.4%	44.8%	11.8%	25.5%	15.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	57.1%	—	—	8.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	74.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	69.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	68.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	63.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗