KIND / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

66%

30%

22%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.8¢Risks 43.75u

HRESNO 56.2¢Risks 56.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.25u · HRES −56.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	64.9%	21.3%	58.5%	28.8%	24.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	64.9%	21.3%	68.1%	28.8%	24.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	64.9%	21.3%	68.1%	28.8%	24.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	64.9%	21.3%	68.1%	28.8%	24.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	64.9%	21.3%	68.1%	28.8%	24.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	62.3%	21.3%	68.1%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	62.3%	21.3%	68.1%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	62.3%	21.3%	68.1%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	62.3%	21.3%	68.1%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:48+00:00	62.3%	13.0%	64.2%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	62.3%	13.0%	64.2%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	62.3%	13.0%	64.2%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	62.3%	13.0%	64.2%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	60.9%	13.2%	64.2%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	60.9%	13.2%	64.2%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	60.9%	9.9%	64.2%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	60.9%	9.9%	64.2%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	60.9%	9.9%	61.8%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	60.9%	9.9%	61.8%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	60.9%	9.9%	61.8%	11.6%	35.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	63.0%	9.9%	61.8%	24.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	63.0%	9.9%	61.8%	24.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	63.0%	9.9%	61.8%	24.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	63.0%	9.9%	61.8%	24.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	63.0%	9.9%	61.8%	24.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	63.0%	9.9%	71.1%	24.8%	32.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	63.0%	9.9%	71.1%	24.8%	32.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	63.0%	9.9%	71.1%	24.8%	32.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	63.0%	9.9%	71.1%	24.8%	32.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	63.0%	9.9%	71.1%	24.8%	32.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	63.0%	9.9%	71.1%	24.8%	32.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	63.0%	9.9%	71.1%	24.8%	32.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00	57.2%	22.2%	87.4%	16.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	57.2%	22.2%	87.4%	16.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	57.2%	22.2%	87.4%	16.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	57.2%	22.2%	78.2%	16.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	57.2%	22.2%	78.2%	16.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	57.2%	22.2%	78.2%	16.6%	37.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	59.6%	22.2%	78.2%	6.6%	30.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	59.6%	22.2%	78.2%	6.6%	30.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	59.6%	22.2%	78.2%	6.6%	30.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	59.6%	22.2%	78.2%	6.6%	30.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	59.6%	22.2%	78.2%	6.6%	30.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	59.6%	22.2%	80.9%	6.6%	30.0%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	59.6%	22.2%	80.9%	6.6%	30.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	59.6%	22.2%	80.9%	6.6%	30.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	65.7%	22.2%	80.9%	6.6%	30.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	65.7%	22.2%	80.9%	6.6%	30.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	65.7%	22.2%	80.9%	6.6%	30.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	74.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	69.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	68.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	63.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗