KIND / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

69%

60%

54%

40%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.7¢Risks 63.75u

EPSNO 36.3¢Risks 36.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.25u · EPS −36.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	30.2%	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	55.2%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	0.1%	7.5%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	11.5%	54.2%	2.1%	—	20.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	35.7%	32.3%	8.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	23.9%	40.9%	13.4%	—	15.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	40.5%	50.8%	18.4%	40.5%	35.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	43.5%	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	44.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	79.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	77.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	60%	76.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	73.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	39%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	10%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗