KIND / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

69%

60%

54%

40%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.7¢Risks 63.75u

EPSNO 36.3¢Risks 36.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.25u · EPS −36.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:48+00:00	58.3%	16.4%	61.5%	17.6%	8.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	58.3%	16.4%	61.5%	17.6%	8.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	58.3%	16.4%	61.5%	17.6%	8.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	58.3%	16.4%	61.5%	17.6%	8.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	66.8%	16.4%	61.5%	17.6%	8.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	66.8%	16.4%	61.5%	17.6%	8.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	66.8%	13.7%	61.5%	17.6%	8.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	66.8%	13.7%	61.5%	17.6%	8.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	66.8%	13.7%	65.2%	17.6%	8.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	66.8%	13.7%	65.2%	17.6%	8.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	66.8%	13.7%	65.2%	17.6%	8.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	62.3%	13.7%	65.2%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	62.3%	13.7%	65.2%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	62.3%	13.7%	65.2%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	62.3%	13.7%	65.2%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	62.3%	13.7%	65.2%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	62.3%	13.7%	73.4%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:53+00:00	62.3%	13.7%	73.4%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	62.3%	13.7%	73.4%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	64.9%	13.7%	73.4%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	64.9%	13.7%	73.4%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	64.9%	13.7%	73.4%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	64.9%	13.7%	73.4%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:55+00:00	64.9%	13.7%	73.4%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:04+00:00	64.9%	13.7%	72.8%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	64.9%	13.7%	72.8%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	64.9%	13.7%	72.8%	32.1%	41.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00	69.1%	13.7%	72.8%	31.9%	59.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	69.1%	13.7%	72.8%	31.9%	59.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	69.1%	13.7%	72.8%	31.9%	59.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00	69.1%	13.7%	72.8%	31.9%	59.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00	69.1%	13.7%	72.8%	31.9%	59.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00	69.1%	15.8%	85.3%	31.9%	59.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	69.1%	15.8%	85.3%	31.9%	59.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	69.1%	15.8%	85.3%	31.9%	59.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	55.1%	15.8%	85.3%	31.9%	59.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	55.2%	15.8%	85.3%	31.9%	58.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00	55.2%	16.3%	85.3%	31.9%	58.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	55.2%	16.3%	85.3%	31.9%	58.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	55.2%	16.3%	85.3%	31.9%	58.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	55.2%	16.3%	83.8%	31.9%	58.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	55.2%	16.3%	83.8%	31.9%	58.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	55.2%	16.3%	83.8%	31.9%	58.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	58.1%	16.3%	83.8%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	58.1%	16.3%	83.8%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	58.1%	16.3%	83.8%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	58.1%	16.3%	83.8%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	58.1%	16.3%	83.8%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	58.1%	16.3%	85.3%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	58.1%	16.3%	85.3%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	58.1%	16.3%	85.3%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	67.2%	16.3%	85.3%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	67.2%	16.3%	85.3%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	67.2%	16.3%	85.3%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-20T04:04:42+00:00	67.2%	16.3%	85.3%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	67.2%	16.3%	85.3%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	67.2%	16.3%	85.8%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	67.2%	16.3%	85.8%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	67.2%	16.3%	85.8%	28.2%	49.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	81.3%	16.3%	85.8%	28.2%	59.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	81.3%	16.3%	85.8%	28.2%	59.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	81.3%	16.3%	85.8%	28.2%	59.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	81.3%	16.3%	85.8%	28.2%	59.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00	81.3%	40.4%	89.7%	53.4%	59.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	81.3%	40.4%	89.7%	53.4%	59.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	81.3%	40.4%	89.7%	53.4%	59.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	81.3%	40.4%	89.7%	53.4%	59.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	81.4%	40.4%	89.8%	53.5%	59.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	81.4%	40.4%	89.8%	53.5%	59.7%
2026-10-20T15:32:02+00:00	81.4%	40.1%	89.8%	53.5%	59.7%
2026-10-20T16:17:59+00:00	81.4%	40.1%	89.8%	53.5%	59.7%
2026-10-20T17:03:23+00:00	69.4%	40.1%	87.4%	53.5%	59.7%
2026-10-20T17:48:38+00:00	69.4%	40.1%	87.4%	53.5%	59.7%
2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00	69.4%	40.1%	87.4%	53.5%	59.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	79.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	77.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	60%	76.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	75.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	73.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	39%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	10%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗