KIND / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

57%

38%

30%

23%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.1¢Risks 52.05u

ICONNO 47.9¢Risks 47.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.95u · ICON −47.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.4%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	40.4%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	0.5%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	16.0%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	2.2%	35.5%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	31.1%	14.1%	3.3%	—	25.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	51.5%	42.0%	16.5%	50.0%	35.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	38.9%	—	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	78.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	74.5°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	74.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	38%	71.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	71.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	66.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗