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KIND / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
81%
WN2
57%
HRES
38%
EPS
30%
ICON
23%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 52.1¢Risks 52.05u
VS
ICONNO 47.9¢Risks 47.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.95u · ICON −47.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:0080.8%30.1%57.2%37.8%23.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:0080.8%30.1%57.2%37.8%23.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:0080.8%30.1%57.2%37.8%23.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:34+00:0080.8%30.1%57.2%37.8%23.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:15+00:0080.8%30.1%57.2%37.8%23.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single81%78.5°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 257%74.5°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
National Blend54%74.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES38%71.5°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble30%71.1°F4.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON23%66.2°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis high ≥ 74°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗