KIND / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

71%

65%

62%

36%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

EPSNO 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.50u · EPS −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	34.6%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	12.3%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	1.4%	29.4%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	25.2%	10.5%	2.2%	—	20.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	44.2%	35.0%	12.4%	42.7%	28.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	32.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	37.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	78.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	77.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	65%	77.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	76.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	73.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	17%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	69.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗