KIND / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Indianapolis, INHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

71%

65%

62%

36%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.5¢Risks 55.50u

EPSNO 44.5¢Risks 44.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.50u · EPS −44.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00	75.7%	30.9%	69.5%	32.1%	20.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:34+00:00	75.7%	30.9%	69.5%	32.1%	20.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	75.7%	30.9%	69.5%	32.1%	20.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	57.6%	30.9%	69.5%	32.1%	20.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	57.6%	30.9%	69.5%	32.1%	20.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:35+00:00	57.6%	30.9%	69.5%	32.1%	20.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	57.6%	30.9%	69.5%	32.1%	20.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:16+00:00	57.6%	30.9%	69.5%	32.1%	20.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	57.6%	30.9%	36.9%	32.1%	20.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	57.6%	30.9%	36.9%	32.1%	20.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00	57.6%	30.9%	36.9%	32.1%	20.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	68.1%	30.9%	36.9%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	68.1%	30.9%	36.9%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:53+00:00	68.1%	30.9%	36.9%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	68.1%	30.9%	36.9%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	68.1%	30.9%	36.9%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	68.1%	30.9%	61.6%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:53+00:00	68.1%	30.9%	61.6%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:38+00:00	68.1%	30.9%	61.6%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:48+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	61.6%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	61.6%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	61.6%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	61.6%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:21+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	61.6%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	66.0%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	66.0%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	59.6%	30.9%	66.0%	26.2%	53.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	83.2%	30.9%	66.0%	26.2%	65.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:08+00:00	83.2%	30.9%	66.0%	26.2%	65.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	83.2%	30.9%	66.0%	26.2%	65.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	83.2%	30.9%	66.0%	26.2%	65.3%
2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00	83.2%	34.9%	80.4%	62.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	83.2%	34.9%	80.4%	62.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	83.2%	34.9%	80.4%	62.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	83.2%	34.9%	80.4%	62.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:17+00:00	83.3%	34.9%	80.4%	62.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	83.3%	34.9%	80.4%	62.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T15:32:03+00:00	83.3%	35.6%	80.4%	62.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T16:17:59+00:00	83.3%	35.6%	80.4%	62.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T17:03:23+00:00	75.4%	35.6%	71.1%	62.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T17:48:38+00:00	75.4%	35.6%	71.1%	62.5%	65.3%
2026-10-20T18:33:46+00:00	75.4%	35.6%	71.1%	62.5%	65.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	78.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	77.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	65%	77.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	76.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	73.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	17%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	69.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KIND

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KIND-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗