KJAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

58%

46%

30%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.9¢Risks 59.90u

EPSNO 40.1¢Risks 40.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.10u · EPS −40.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	80.2%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	65.2%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	1.0%	43.9%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	57.0%	42.3%	0.9%	—	44.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	78.5%	52.9%	31.0%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	78.4%	23.4%	43.2%	—	38.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	76.4%	46.0%	29.5%	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.9%	0.1%	56.5%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	69.2%	55.0%	45.8%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	41.5%	47.4%	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	50.9%	65.4%	41.3%	—	25.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	61.5%	58.0%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	50.0%	63.6%	23.0%	—	26.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	60.3%	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	51.9%	50.0%	33.9%	—	28.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	41.1%	45.0%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	44.9%	50.0%	22.7%	—	25.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	48.9%	45.8%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	59.7%	59.7%	26.4%	54.4%	37.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	68.5%	0.0%	—	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	80.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	80.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	58%	77.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	76.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	75.3°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗