KJAX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

58%

46%

30%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.9¢Risks 59.90u

EPSNO 40.1¢Risks 40.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.10u · EPS −40.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:22+00:00	90.5%	56.9%	83.2%	57.2%	86.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	90.5%	57.1%	83.2%	57.2%	86.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	90.5%	57.1%	83.2%	57.2%	86.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	90.5%	57.1%	83.2%	57.2%	86.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	90.5%	57.1%	83.2%	57.2%	86.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	90.5%	57.1%	83.2%	57.2%	86.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00	86.2%	57.1%	83.2%	57.2%	86.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	86.2%	57.1%	83.2%	57.2%	86.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	86.2%	57.1%	83.2%	57.2%	86.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	86.2%	57.1%	83.2%	57.2%	86.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	86.2%	57.1%	83.2%	40.4%	86.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00	86.2%	57.1%	87.6%	40.4%	86.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00	86.2%	57.1%	87.6%	40.4%	86.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	86.2%	57.1%	87.6%	40.4%	86.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	88.9%	57.1%	87.6%	40.4%	86.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	88.9%	57.1%	87.6%	40.4%	86.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	88.9%	57.1%	87.6%	40.4%	86.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	88.9%	57.1%	87.6%	40.4%	86.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:24+00:00	88.9%	57.1%	87.6%	40.4%	86.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	88.9%	57.1%	86.3%	40.4%	86.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	88.9%	57.1%	86.3%	40.4%	86.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	88.9%	57.1%	86.3%	40.4%	86.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	90.5%	57.1%	86.3%	44.5%	85.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	90.5%	57.1%	86.3%	44.5%	85.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00	90.5%	57.1%	86.3%	44.5%	85.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	90.5%	57.1%	86.3%	44.5%	85.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	90.5%	57.1%	86.3%	44.5%	85.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	90.5%	61.8%	93.7%	44.5%	85.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	90.5%	61.8%	93.7%	44.5%	85.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	90.5%	61.8%	93.7%	44.5%	85.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	85.7%	61.8%	93.7%	44.5%	85.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	85.8%	61.8%	93.7%	44.5%	84.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	85.8%	61.8%	93.7%	44.5%	84.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	85.8%	61.8%	93.7%	44.5%	84.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	85.8%	61.8%	93.4%	44.5%	84.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	85.8%	61.8%	93.4%	44.5%	84.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	85.8%	61.8%	93.4%	44.5%	84.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	85.8%	61.8%	93.4%	44.5%	84.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	89.1%	61.8%	93.4%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	89.1%	61.8%	93.4%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	89.1%	61.8%	93.4%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	89.1%	61.8%	93.4%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	89.1%	61.8%	94.3%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	89.1%	61.8%	94.3%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	89.1%	61.8%	94.3%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	89.1%	61.8%	94.3%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	88.7%	61.8%	94.3%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	88.7%	61.8%	94.3%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	88.7%	61.8%	94.3%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	88.7%	61.8%	94.3%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	88.7%	61.8%	93.4%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	88.7%	61.8%	93.4%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	88.7%	61.8%	93.4%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	88.7%	61.8%	93.4%	39.1%	79.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:00+00:00	91.8%	61.8%	93.4%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	91.8%	61.8%	93.4%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	91.8%	61.8%	93.4%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	91.8%	61.8%	93.4%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	91.8%	21.5%	94.3%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	91.8%	21.5%	94.3%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	91.8%	21.5%	94.3%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	91.8%	21.5%	94.3%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	90.1%	21.5%	94.3%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	90.1%	21.5%	94.3%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	90.1%	14.7%	94.3%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	90.1%	14.7%	94.3%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	90.1%	14.7%	95.2%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:20+00:00	90.1%	14.7%	95.2%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	90.1%	14.7%	95.2%	33.7%	64.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	87.6%	14.7%	95.2%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	87.6%	14.7%	95.2%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	87.6%	14.7%	95.2%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	87.6%	14.7%	95.2%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	87.6%	14.7%	95.2%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	87.6%	14.7%	94.0%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	87.6%	14.7%	94.0%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	87.6%	14.7%	94.0%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	86.7%	14.7%	94.0%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	86.7%	14.7%	94.0%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	86.7%	14.7%	94.0%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	86.7%	14.7%	94.0%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	86.7%	14.7%	94.0%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	86.7%	14.7%	93.0%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	86.7%	14.7%	93.0%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	86.7%	14.7%	93.0%	37.4%	63.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:00	82.6%	14.7%	93.0%	42.0%	58.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	82.6%	14.7%	93.0%	42.0%	58.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	82.6%	14.7%	93.0%	42.0%	58.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	82.6%	14.7%	93.0%	42.0%	58.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	82.6%	14.7%	93.0%	42.0%	58.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	82.6%	22.7%	84.3%	42.0%	58.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	82.6%	22.7%	84.3%	42.0%	58.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	82.6%	22.7%	84.3%	42.0%	58.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	84.9%	22.7%	84.3%	42.0%	58.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	84.9%	22.7%	84.4%	42.0%	58.9%
2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00	82.6%	15.2%	82.2%	37.7%	52.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	82.6%	15.2%	82.2%	37.7%	52.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	82.6%	15.2%	83.7%	37.7%	52.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	82.6%	15.2%	83.7%	37.7%	52.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	82.6%	15.2%	83.7%	37.7%	52.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	86.2%	15.2%	83.7%	37.7%	56.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	86.2%	15.2%	83.7%	37.7%	56.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	86.2%	15.2%	83.7%	37.7%	56.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	86.2%	15.2%	83.7%	37.7%	56.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:16+00:00	86.2%	30.1%	89.6%	46.1%	56.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	86.2%	30.1%	89.6%	46.1%	56.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	86.2%	30.1%	89.6%	46.1%	56.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	86.2%	30.1%	89.6%	46.1%	56.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	86.2%	30.1%	89.7%	46.1%	57.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	80.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	80.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	58%	77.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	76.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	75.3°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗