KJAX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

77%

56%

36%

12%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.6¢Risks 44.60u

EPSNO 55.4¢Risks 55.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.40u · EPS −55.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	67.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	83.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	80.7%	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	—	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	16.8%	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	16.0%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	6.4%	54.7%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	70.8%	50.0%	0.5%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	75.1%	55.8%	31.7%	—	39.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	56.1%	56.8%	47.7%	—	32.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	46.9%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	47.6%	60.3%	36.7%	—	27.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	2.5%	57.3%	—	—	29.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.9%	33.8%	62.3%	30.0%	—	32.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	48.3%	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	31.4%	51.7%	29.9%	—	29.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	41.1%	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	40.9%	53.7%	30.6%	—	30.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	46.2%	51.9%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	49.0%	53.9%	29.6%	50.0%	27.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	54.0%	—	—	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	79.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	77.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	74.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	74.1°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗