KJAX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Jacksonville, FLHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

77%

56%

36%

12%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.6¢Risks 44.60u

EPSNO 55.4¢Risks 55.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.40u · EPS −55.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:12+00:00	91.9%	60.6%	82.8%	41.4%	32.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	91.8%	60.6%	82.7%	41.4%	32.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:23+00:00	91.8%	60.6%	82.7%	41.4%	32.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	91.8%	60.6%	82.7%	41.4%	32.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	91.8%	60.6%	82.7%	41.4%	32.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	91.8%	60.6%	86.8%	41.4%	32.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	91.8%	60.6%	86.8%	41.4%	32.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	91.8%	60.6%	86.8%	41.4%	32.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:56+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	86.8%	41.4%	78.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	86.8%	41.4%	78.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	86.8%	41.4%	78.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	86.8%	41.4%	78.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	86.8%	31.5%	78.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:23+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	87.2%	31.6%	78.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:05+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	87.2%	31.6%	78.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	87.4%	60.6%	87.2%	31.6%	78.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	87.2%	31.6%	78.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	87.2%	31.6%	78.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	87.2%	31.6%	78.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	87.2%	31.6%	78.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:24+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	87.2%	31.6%	78.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:22+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	88.0%	31.6%	78.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	88.0%	31.6%	78.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	89.2%	60.6%	88.0%	31.6%	78.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	88.2%	60.6%	88.0%	37.5%	85.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	88.2%	60.6%	88.0%	37.5%	85.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:32+00:00	88.2%	60.6%	88.0%	37.5%	85.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	88.2%	60.6%	88.0%	37.5%	85.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	88.2%	60.6%	88.0%	37.5%	85.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	88.2%	55.5%	91.1%	37.5%	85.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	88.2%	55.5%	91.1%	37.5%	85.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	88.2%	55.5%	91.1%	37.5%	85.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	81.3%	55.5%	91.1%	37.7%	85.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	81.3%	55.4%	91.1%	37.5%	84.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	81.3%	55.5%	91.1%	37.5%	84.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	81.3%	55.5%	91.1%	37.5%	84.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	81.3%	55.5%	88.8%	37.5%	84.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	81.3%	55.5%	88.8%	37.5%	84.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	81.3%	55.5%	88.8%	37.5%	84.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	81.3%	55.5%	88.8%	37.5%	84.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	84.5%	55.5%	88.8%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	84.5%	55.5%	88.8%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	84.5%	55.5%	88.8%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	84.5%	55.5%	88.8%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	84.5%	55.5%	90.0%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	84.5%	55.6%	90.0%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	84.5%	55.6%	90.0%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	84.5%	55.6%	90.0%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	85.0%	55.6%	90.0%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	85.0%	55.6%	90.0%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	85.0%	55.6%	90.0%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	85.0%	55.6%	90.0%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	85.0%	55.6%	88.8%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	85.0%	55.6%	88.8%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	85.0%	55.6%	88.8%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	85.0%	55.6%	88.8%	41.0%	73.5%
2026-10-18T08:01:00+00:00	87.1%	55.6%	88.8%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	87.1%	55.6%	88.8%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	87.1%	55.6%	88.8%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	87.1%	55.6%	88.8%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	87.1%	18.9%	89.7%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	87.1%	18.9%	89.7%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	87.1%	18.9%	89.7%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	87.1%	18.9%	89.7%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	84.4%	18.9%	89.7%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	84.4%	18.9%	89.7%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	84.4%	12.3%	89.7%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:51+00:00	84.4%	12.3%	89.7%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	84.4%	12.3%	88.3%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:20+00:00	84.4%	12.3%	88.3%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	84.4%	12.3%	88.3%	33.9%	65.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	82.9%	12.3%	88.3%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	82.9%	12.3%	88.3%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	82.9%	12.3%	88.3%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	82.9%	12.3%	88.3%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	82.9%	12.3%	88.3%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	82.9%	12.3%	85.2%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	82.9%	12.3%	85.2%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	82.9%	12.3%	85.2%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	79.6%	12.3%	85.2%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	79.6%	12.3%	85.2%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	79.6%	12.3%	85.2%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	79.6%	12.3%	85.2%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	79.6%	12.3%	85.2%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	79.6%	12.3%	82.9%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	79.6%	12.3%	82.9%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	79.6%	12.3%	82.9%	42.5%	54.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:00	75.7%	12.3%	82.9%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	75.7%	12.3%	82.9%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	75.7%	12.3%	82.9%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	75.7%	12.3%	82.9%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	75.7%	12.3%	82.9%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	75.7%	18.4%	74.0%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	75.7%	18.4%	74.0%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	75.7%	18.4%	74.0%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	75.7%	18.4%	74.0%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	75.8%	18.4%	74.1%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:23+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	74.1%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	74.1%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	74.1%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	72.3%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	72.3%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	72.3%	31.6%	45.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	72.3%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	72.3%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	72.3%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	72.3%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	72.3%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	75.8%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	75.1%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	75.1%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	75.1%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:17+00:00	75.1%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	75.1%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	75.1%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	75.1%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	75.1%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	55.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	76.7%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	56.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	76.7%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	56.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	76.7%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	56.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	76.7%	10.6%	74.9%	43.6%	56.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:16+00:00	76.7%	12.0%	77.2%	36.0%	56.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	76.7%	12.0%	77.2%	36.0%	56.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	76.7%	12.0%	77.2%	36.0%	56.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	76.7%	12.0%	77.2%	36.0%	56.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	76.7%	12.0%	77.2%	36.0%	56.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	77%	79.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	79.6°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	77.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	74.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	74.1°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KJAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KJAX-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Jacksonville high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗